Newsom’s decisive recall victory comes as no surprise
October 26, 2021
On Sept. 13, California held its special election to determine if Governor Gavin Newsom would be recalled. Newsom smoothly avoided being recalled, winning 62 percent of the vote compared to the 38 percent who voted in favor of being removed from office.
For many, these results were no surprise. The Democratic party has not lost a statewide race in over fifteen years and just a year ago in the Presidential election, Joe Biden won the state with similar results, taking 63 percent of the vote.
No matter what, the GOP had an uphill battle in not just unseating Newsom from the role of Governor, but also generating a new leader in his place. Newsom’s dissenters from the GOP certainly tried, as they vaulted up conservative talk show host Larry Elder to be his main opponent.
Elder and his base of supporters were quite loud, bashing COVID mandates, abortion rights, the homelessness crisis and minimum wage. With all this in mind, it should not be shocking to anyone with a fraction of political knowledge in this country that Newsom won the way he did.
For registered voters in the state, Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. The one thing Republicans had going for them in their recall effort was apathy on the part of Democratic voters in the beginning.
Polling in early to mid July indicated the race could be closer than many pundits anticipated at the time. This began to change surprisingly enough when Elder threw his name into the massive ring of competitors. He immediately struck out, causing the race to become a one-on-one situation rather than Newsom versus the field.
Elder, coming out with his staunch support of the few Republican platforms, ran across the country during the 2020 election season and woke up many Democratic voters who were not taking the recall election seriously.
This was a fatal mistake for the GOP in this go-around as Elder essentially ran the same race as Donald Trump did in 2020, who got pummeled by the California voters. One could also take a look at the polling data from the beginning of July to the day of the election for more confirmation that this result was not surprising.
While it certainly got close for a while, with the polling having “keep” up only by 0.2 percent, there was never a moment in this overall timespan where “remove” ever took the lead. Polling may not always be accurate, however, it certainly was in this case given the end results.
The voters choosing to keep Newsom in office will be positive for California. In terms of COVID, California has actively been at the bottom of case rates while also ranking high in vaccination rates.
One also needs to look no further than the state of Texas, who with an aggressive consevative governor, is actively taking away a woman’s right to health care through its draconian prohibition on abortion. Texas has also signed bill SB-1 into law, making it easier to suppress state voters .
If a conservative such as Elder were to have taken office in the potential recall of Governor Newsom, there is no question that he or any other would have attempted to restrict the freedoms and human rights of California citizens in a similar manner.
Gavin Newsom staving off the recall vote was the best possible solution for California and its citizens as he will continue to lead California in an upward direction.